US-Iran Conflict Enters Third Month: Geopolitical Standoff Remains Stagnant

Entering its third month, the US-Iran conflict remains at a stalemate with little progress toward a long-term resolution. Crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel in mid-March 2026 and have fluctuated since, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively coming to a standstill. Global equity markets began to look past the energy supply disruption beginning at the end of March and rallied through April. Volatility has fallen back near long-term median levels as the S&P 500 recovered its entire 9% pullback and eclipsed new all-time highs. Bond markets also experienced elevated volatility at the start of the conflict, with yields across most areas of the curve increasing 30-40 basis points. Economists estimate the probability of a US recession would exceed 50% if energy shipping disruptions continue long-term and oil prices fail to decline.